Natural disasters such as hurricanes, wildfires, and winter storms have induced large-scale power outages in the U.S., resulting in tremendous economic and societal impacts. Accurately predicting power outage recovery and impact is key to resilience of power grid. Recent advances in machine learning offer viable frameworks for estimating power outage duration from geospatial and weather data. However, three major challenges are inherent to the task in a real world setting: spatial dependency of the data, spatial heterogeneity of the impact, and moderate event data. We propose a novel approach to estimate the duration of severe weather-induced power outages through Graph Attention Networks (GAT). Our network uses a simple structure from unsupervised pre-training, followed by semi-supervised learning. We use field data from four major hurricanes affecting $501$ counties in eight Southeastern U.S. states. The model exhibits an excellent performance ($>93\%$ accuracy) and outperforms the existing methods XGBoost, Random Forest, GCN and simple GAT by $2\% - 15\%$ in both the overall performance and class-wise accuracy.

The multifaceted nature of disaster impact shows that densely populated areas contribute more to aggregate burden, while sparsely populated but heavily affected regions suffer disproportionately at the individual level. This study introduces a framework for quantifying the societal impacts of power outages by translating customer weighted outage exposure into deprivation measures, integrating welfare metrics with three recovery indicators, average outage days per customer, restoration duration, and relative restoration rate, computed from sequential EAGLE I observations and linked to Zip Code Tabulation Area demographics. Applied to four United States hurricanes, Beryl 2024 Texas, Helene 2024 Florida, Milton 2024 Florida, and Ida 2021 Louisiana, this standardized pipeline provides the first cross event, fine scale evaluation of outage impacts and their drivers. Results demonstrate regressive patterns with greater burdens in lower income areas, mechanistic analysis shows deprivation increases with longer restoration durations and decreases with faster restoration rates, explainable modeling identifies restoration duration as the dominant driver, and clustering reveals distinct recovery typologies not captured by conventional reliability metrics. This framework delivers a transferable method for assessing outage impacts and equity, comparative cross event evidence linking restoration dynamics to social outcomes, and actionable spatial analyses that support equity informed restoration planning and resilience investment.

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, highlights the urgent need for efficient and equitable power system restoration. Many electricity providers make restoration decisions primarily based on the volume of power restoration requests from each region. However, our data-driven analysis reveals significant disparities in request submission volume, as disadvantaged communities tend to submit fewer restoration requests. This disparity makes the current restoration solution inequitable, leaving these communities vulnerable to extended power outages. To address this, we aim to propose an equity-aware power restoration strategy that balances both restoration efficiency and equity across communities. However, achieving this goal is challenging for two reasons: the difficulty of predicting repair durations under dataset het-eroscedasticity, and the tendency of reinforcement learning agents to favor low-uncertainty actions, which potentially undermine equity. To overcome these challenges, we design a predict-then-optimize framework called EPOPR with two key components: (1) Equity-Conformalized Quantile Regression for uncertainty-aware repair duration prediction, and (2) Spatial-Temporal Attentional RL that adapts to varying uncertainty levels across regions for equitable decision-making. Experimental results show that our EPOPR effectively reduces the average power outage duration by 3.60% and decreases inequity between different communities by 14.19% compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

Energy justice is a growing area of interest in interdisciplinary energy research. However, identifying systematic biases in the energy sector remains challenging due to confounding variables, intricate heterogeneity in counterfactual effects, and limited data availability. First, this paper demonstrates how one can evaluate counterfactual unfairness in a power system by analyzing the average causal effect of a specific protected attribute. Subsequently, we use subgroup analysis to handle model heterogeneity and introduce a novel method for estimating counterfactual unfairness based on transfer learning, which helps to alleviate the data scarcity in each subgroup. In our numerical analysis, we apply our method to a unique large-scale customer-level power outage data set and investigate the counterfactual effect of demographic factors, such as income and age of the population, on power outage durations. Our results indicate that low-income and elderly-populated areas consistently experience longer power outages under both daily and post-disaster operations, and such discrimination is exacerbated under severe conditions. These findings suggest a widespread, systematic issue of injustice in the power service systems and emphasize the necessity for focused interventions in disadvantaged communities.

Outages are fairly common in power distribution networks [1], [2], and this number is increasing in some countries because of aging infrastructure and changing weather patterns [3], [4]. While good design and maintenance reduce the number of outages, they cannot be eliminated completely. When an outage is required to perform maintenance or upgrade the equipment, the utility can minimize the disruption of service to customers by carefully planning the deployment of the crews and the sequence of operations. On the other hand, a fault in the system usually causes an unplanned outages, which can lead to long service interruptions and significant inconvenience to the customers. Therefore, reducing the number of unplanned outages and better managing their duration is a priority for most utilities [5]. The first step towards mitigating the negative consequences of unplanned outages is to gain a better understanding of their number and duration, as well as the number of customers affected.